This is a very popular belief and one which is
borne out by most measures of economic growth. And to be completely honest, as
the economy is conventionally measured, WWII did result in a rapidly expanding
economy. However, the reason why economic growth is important is because it
raises the standard of living of the lot of all men and women. This certainly
was not the case during the war. Instead of producing capital or consumer goods
that improved people's lives, the bulk of the economic growth during the war
came from government purchases which funded the manufacturing of tanks,
uniforms, bombs, bullets, etc. According to the economic historian Dr. Robert
Higgs:
"Yes,
national output as conventionally measured did grow hugely during the war...
[G]ross domestic product (in constant 1987 prices) increased by 84 percent
between 1940 and 1944. What the orthodox account neglects, however, is that
this "miracle of production" consisted entirely (and then some) of
increased government spending, nearly all of it for war materials and equipment
and military personnel. The private component of GDP (consumption plus
investment) actually fell after 1941, and while the war lasted,
private output never recovered to its pre-Pearl Harbor level. In 1943, real
private GDP was 14 percent lower than it had been in 1941. If a nation produces
an abundance of guns and ammunition, it does not thereby achieve genuine
prosperity .Those who lived through the war ... forget the scarcity of decent
housing, the hassles in commuting to work, and the severe rationing or complete
absence of basic consumer goods...Because of the many other ways that the
well-being of consumers deteriorated during the war, which the official data
fail to capture, actual wartime conditions were even worse than [the] figures
suggest." [1]
As Dr. Higgs notes, no
intellectually honest person would believe that the war was good for the
American people, nor the people in countries affected by the war. Indeed, the
American people suffered the rationing of basic goods and services as if they
lived in a communist command economy. Austrian economist Steve Horwitz and his
colleague Michael J. McPhillips published a study in 'The Independent Review'
which states:
"Whatever the war’s effects on
seemingly booming conventional macroeconomic aggregates, it entailed a
retrogression in the average American’s living standards, and that disconnect
should alert us to those aggregates’ limitations...The notion that World War II is responsible for ending the Great
Depression has met growing skepticism among economic historians. Although the
wartime economy saw increases in conventional measures of macroeconomic
performance, the letters, journals, and newspapers of the era indicate years of
continued material deprivation and hardship, rather than rising living
standards for the average American." [2]
Thus, while Gross Domestic Product
is a useful tool in measuring the size of the economy, any sort of production,
even if such production is socially harmful (like production of war materials
which crowds out private production) is considered a net gain.
Additionally, Economist Robert
Barro has done research on the multiplier effect of government spending during
WWII and concluded that the defense spending multiplier was 0.8 and the
non-defense spending multiplier was close to zero [3]. This suggests that while
government spending on defense stimulated production, it also crowded out
private sector investment. His results indicate that the "benefits"
of government spending did not outweigh the costs of crowded out private sector
investment. Thus, even by conventional measurement of the economy, WWII wasn't
exactly a net gain.
During the war, Keynesian
economists warned that an end to the excessive defense spending would lead to
an economic downturn. Leading Keynesian Alvin Hansen stated, "the government cannot just disband the Army, close
down munitions factories, stop building ships, and remove all economic
controls.” [4] Contra Hansen's advice, after the war the government "Government
canceled war contracts, and its spending fell from $84 billion in 1945 to under
$30 billion in 1946. By 1947, the government was paying back its
massive wartime debts by running a budget surplus of
close to 6 percent of GDP"[4]. As a result conventional measurements of the macroeconomy (GDP), suggest that
there was a severe depression in 1946, the year after the war. However, this
economic downturn is almost never spoken of simply because it was a return to
normalcy from the economic sugar high of WWII. In fact, no one living during
the post-war years would think that they were living in a depression. There was
no evidence of diminished consumption after the war and the unemployment rate
was 3.9% in 1946, indicating a strong economy. Of course, this unemployment
rate was higher than the 1.2% unemployment rate of 1944 because millions of
soldiers who volunteered or were drafted into the military returned home [5].
As historian Thomas Woods has suggested, the miracle of employment during the
war could easily be achieved at any time if the government decided to simply
kill off the unemployed, but that is both perverse and insane [6]. Woods'
comments are meant to highlight the fact that low unemployment due to mass
military conscription is nothing to be proud of.
After the war, the US economy shrank from
decreased production of war materials, however, after the initial
"depression" the economy (especially the private sector) expanded
rapidly, creating a post war economic boom which continues to be studied today.
In the end, we should be wary of the claim that WWII ended the Depression
simply because producing an abundance of weaponry for war does
nothing to further the standard of living for the lot of all men and women.
Socially useful production is determined subjectively by individuals engaging
in voluntary exchange en mass, government allocation of resources may grow the
economy by conventional macroeconomic measurements, but if no one values what
is produced than that production was a waste of scarce resources. And that is
exactly what World War II was, a necessary waste of scarce resources and human
life, nothing more. Hopefully the world will never have to experience such a
"miracle of production" again.
Citations:
[1] http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=2188
[2] http://www.independent.org/publications/tir/article.asp?a=915
[3] http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB123258618204604599
[4] http://www.cato.org/policy-report/mayjune-2010/stimulus-spending-cuts-lessons-1946
[5] http://mises.org/journals/rae/pdf/rae5_2_1.pdf
[6] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71tPBjrTeJU
Citations:
[1] http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=2188
[2] http://www.independent.org/publications/tir/article.asp?a=915
[3] http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB123258618204604599
[4] http://www.cato.org/policy-report/mayjune-2010/stimulus-spending-cuts-lessons-1946
[5] http://mises.org/journals/rae/pdf/rae5_2_1.pdf
[6] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71tPBjrTeJU
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